As a yearly March Madness watcher, I am constantly on the edge of my seat – waiting to see if my Michigan Wolverines make it to the next round or if a big upset happens to a championship favorite.
March is the one month where all sports fans come together, whether they’ve watched the entire college basketball season or not; if they tune in from four different televisions or a phone screen.
First Steps
March Madness is the ultimate college basketball tournament of 64 Division I schools that play a one-game elimination style to make it to the national championship game. March Madness starts on Selection Sunday, where the NCAA committee reveals all 64 teams that will be playing in the tournament. This is the day when teams get finalized and learn their fates of how they can make it to the championship game. The bracket is split into four regions: South, West, East and Midwest. This is where I start my scientific breakdown of all of the teams and start evaluating my matchups.
Teams I Believe Will Win
Instead of boring you all with my statistical criteria for championship-caliber teams, like offensive and defensive efficiency, offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage and
offensive and defensive turnover percentage, I will just list my picks.
Four-seeded Arizona, two-seeded Tennessee, one-seeded Auburn, one-seeded Houston, one-seeded Duke and two-seeded Michigan State (MSU) are all my favorites coming into the tournament.
Seeds, or being “seeded,” is determined by record and difficulty of play. For instance, you may see seven-seeded Saint Mary’s having a better record than two-seeded Alabama. The SEC is
seen as a tougher conference therefore placing Alabama over Saint Mary’s.
For those who would like to hear about my stats breakdown, I mainly focus on the number of possessions per game they consistently have with scoring a point and how many times they cause a positive or negative turnover. It’s a lot to keep track of, but I use the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings, most commonly known as Kenpom. This is a great way to double-check stats and keep everything contained in one place.
Obviously, not all six teams can make it to the championship, so how do I break this down? I have Duke going far, so they would beat Mississippi State and Arizona, Houston would run into and beat Tennessee and MSU would beat Auburn to make it to the Final Four. This makes my Final Four MSU, Florida, Duke and Houston.
Final Four
This last section of the bracket, granting there are no Cinderella stories, is the most important.
Cinderella Stories is a way of labeling teams that aren’t expected to succeed as much, but end up doing really well in the tournament.
How do you break down the games between four of the most dominant college basketball teams?
MSU vs. Florida, April 5
MSU vs. Florida is a hard game to predict. Florida is the third best team in the nation and is going into the tournament on a hot streak with a record of 30-4. MSU is coming into the tournament with the best record in the Big Ten. However, there are doubts about MSU due to their loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament. I think MSU is playing with a chip on its shoulders and will dominate in this tournament and make it past Florida to play in the National Championship.
Duke vs. Houston, April 5
ACC Player and Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg and number one ranked Duke matching up against number two ranked Houston would be another blockbuster matchup. Duke is coming in with some question marks surrounding Cooper Flagg’s health, but I do expect him to come back by the second round at the least and make it to the national championship game.
National Championship: Duke vs. MSU, April 7
In this theoretical national championship game, Duke going head-to-head with MSU will be a game for the ages. MSU’s legendary head coach Tom Izzo is looking for his second national championship, and Duke is looking to reclaim their spot as the best “blue-blood” basketball program. This game might be close, but I can see Duke showing why they were the number-one ranked team in the nation and became six-time national champions. This would be absolute cinema, barring any Cinderella teams making a big run.
Possible Cinderellas to Watch
I can see 12-seeded Colorado State, 11-seeded Drake and 10-seeded Vanderbilt being possible Cinderellas. Colorado State could beat Memphis and possibly a Maryland team that is on a late-season decline, I doubt that they would be able to beat Florida, however. Drake could beat Missouri, but Texas Tech and St. John’s are tough teams that they would face later on. Lastly, Vanderbilt could definitely beat Saint Mary’s, but Alabama is a common SEC foe and most likely will have their number.
Finishing The Bracket
Finally, you can rest and watch the games in peace. All of the chaotic stats and numbers floating around in your brain will disappear and you will watch some quality basketball.
My favorite part about March Madness is the lack of connection to all of the teams you pick. If they win, great, if they lose, it’s okay.
I wish you the best March Madness season on your multiple devices like a true bracketologist.
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